John McCrea of Plaxo has predicted the social web in 2009.

According to the report...

Facebook will support at least one Open Stack (likely OpenID or OAuth) #

Facebook continues to grow as an application platform, far ahead of the OpenSocial crowd. Currently, it's using its own proprietary specifications, completely ignoring OpenID, OAuth, and Portable Contacts. However, it's always open to adopting open standards. It's entirely possible that Facebook will play this card, depending on the situation.

Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft will support Portable Contacts in their webmail services

Now that Portable Contacts is fully aligned with OpenSocial's RESTful People API, it's likely that it will become a standard. Since there are no other major protocols, Google and Yahoo will definitely support it, even if Microsoft doesn't.

Microsoft will implement at least OAuth for Portable Contacts support #

If Microsoft were to support Portable Contacts, it would be unwise to use a proprietary protocol for authentication, since OpenSocial defines OAuth and Portable Contacts as a set. From a developer's perspective, this is a perfectly viable option.

Microsoft's Windows Live becomes an OpenSocial container

Microsoft actually has its own alternative protocols for all of the above. They also have the gadget platform Windows Live Gadgets. However, with the company lagging behind in the web services field, it's not a good idea to stick to its own path. It's not impossible that they'll support OpenSocial.

Plaxo proves Open Stack can completely replace traditional email/password sign-up

Well, this is just a bonus (lol)

So I thought about it too. Big predictions for the social web in 2009!

Google becomes a social networking site #

As I've written before, Google is steadily preparing to become a social networking site. "Social networking" might be a bit misleading. It's more like they're incorporating social networking sites as a platform.

Google FriendConnect's main feature is said to be its ability to easily turn compatible sites into social networking sites, but I believe it has a different purpose. If Google were to turn iGoogle into an OpenSocial container, the friend list would naturally be primarily the Gmail address book, but I suspect accounts connected via Google FriendConnect might also be a candidate.

If that were to happen, wouldn't all of the accounts of people who participate in multiple social networking sites be bundled together by Google, creating a situation where no one else could compete?

(Actually, I asked someone at Google about this, and they said they wouldn't do anything evil like that.)

The iPhone App Store was a revolution for developers, as there had never been a platform where ordinary developers could simply submit their applications and have them distributed and charged for.

This isn't limited to software development. What if we could do something similar with video and music? I predict that in 2009, these kinds of systems that allow "creators" to earn money will become a popular new business model. Of course, the basic premise is that they can be linked to social web platforms.

The advertising platform wars begin

It's said that the next step in Facebook's strategy is advertising. What better platform for recommendations and targeting than the social web? By leveraging Facebook Connect, Facebook should be ready to display the most relevant ads to users. Naturally, MySpace and Google will likely follow suit, and they could. Therefore, we expect advertising platforms to become more social, creating new competition.

summary #

What did you think? 2008 was a warm-up period for the social web, and next year will be the year of the big showdown. Future trends in the West will surely come to Japan as well.

If you're interested in the social web, please join SocialWeb Japan.