John McCrea of Plaxo has shared his predictions for the social web in 2009.

According to his post...

Facebook will support at least one Open Stack technology (likely OpenID or OAuth) #

Facebook continues to grow as an application platform, leaving the OpenSocial camp far behind. At present, it operates entirely on proprietary specifications, ignoring OpenID, OAuth, and Portable Contacts alike. However, adopting open standards is something they could do at any time. Depending on how the situation evolves, playing this card is a very real possibility.

Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft will support Portable Contacts in their respective webmail services #

Now that it has achieved complete alignment with OpenSocial's RESTful People API, the standardization of Portable Contacts is practically a foregone conclusion. With no other viable competing protocols, Google and Yahoo are bound to support it—setting Microsoft aside for a moment.

Microsoft will implement at least OAuth to support Portable Contacts #

If Microsoft decides to support Portable Contacts, using a proprietary protocol for authentication wouldn't be a wise move, especially since OpenSocial specifies OAuth and Portable Contacts as a package. Looking at it from a developer's perspective, this is a very plausible path.

Microsoft's Windows Live will become an OpenSocial container #

For all of the above, Microsoft actually has its own proprietary alternatives. Even for gadget platforms, they have Windows Live Gadgets. However, having fallen behind in the web services space, clinging to a proprietary path is not a smart strategy. The possibility of them supporting OpenSocial cannot be completely ruled out.

Plaxo will prove that Open Stack can completely replace traditional email/password sign-ups #

Well, this one feels more like a bonus (laughs).

So, I decided to think about it too: My bold predictions for the Social Web in 2009!

Google becomes an SNS #

As I've written before, Google has steadily been preparing to become an SNS. Calling it "becoming an SNS" might be misleading—perhaps "incorporating SNS as a platform" is more accurate.

While Google Friend Connect is often highlighted for letting any website easily add social network features, I suspect their true goal lies elsewhere. If Google were to turn iGoogle into an OpenSocial container, the primary source for friend lists would naturally be Gmail's address book. However, I suspect that accounts connected through Google Friend Connect might also become candidates for that list.

If that happens, users who participate in multiple social networks could have all their accounts aggregated under Google, putting the company in an untouchable position.

(To be honest, I once asked someone at Google about this, and they said, "We wouldn't do something so evil~")

Monetization platforms take off #

The iPhone App Store was a revolution for developers. Before that, there was never a platform where independent developers could simply submit an application they built and have both distribution and billing handled for them.

This isn't limited to software development. What if something similar could be done for video or music? In 2009, I predict that mechanisms enabling "creators" to earn money will take off as a new business model. Of course, integration with social web platforms will be a fundamental prerequisite.

The ad platform wars erupt #

The next move in Facebook's strategy is said to be advertising. Is there any platform better suited for recommendations and targeting than the social web? By leveraging Facebook Connect, they should be well prepared to display advertisements optimized for individual users. Naturally, MySpace and Google will likely pursue—and are capable of pursuing—the same path. Therefore, I expect ad platforms to become social as well, sparking a brand-new wave of competition.

Summary #

What did you think? For the social web, 2008 was a warm-up period, and next year will be the real showdown. The trends unfolding in the US and Europe will inevitably make their way to Japan.

If you are interested in the social web, please consider joining SocialWeb Japan.