Happy New Year!

Between being busy with parenting and everything else, I haven't been able to update this blog for quite a while, but with the turn of the new year, I wanted to write a post to mark the occasion. 2009 was a momentous year both for me personally and for the social web. In particular, the emergence of OpenSocial container implementations in Japan was a huge milestone. It would not be an exaggeration to say that 2009 was the year that sparked the wave of the social web, which will surely continue in the years ahead. I'm honored to have been a part of it, even in a small way.

Actually, at the beginning of 2009, I wrote a post on this blog: "Predicting the Social Web in 2009"

In that post, I introduced a blog post by John McCrea and shared my own predictions for the social web in 2009.

Reviewing the 2009 Predictions #

Since John McCrea also reviewed his own predictions, let me do the same.

Google Becomes an SNS #

In that post, I predicted that iGoogle would turn into a social platform (supporting OpenSocial), including FriendConnect's social graph. In reality, only OpenSocial support was realized; integration with FriendConnect didn't happen.

However, as Google services like Wave, Docs, Calendar, and Android use the Gmail contact list as their social graph, you could say that rather than becoming an "SNS," the shift toward a "social web" has been quietly yet steadily progressing. Google Profiles has also been evolving somewhat, so it's definitely worth keeping an eye on how it transforms going forward.

Billing Platforms Take Off #

Using the iPhone App Store as an example, I predicted that it would become much easier for not just developers, but all kinds of content creators to monetize. If pressed, mixi Apps and Android Market fit into this category, but it's undeniable that this fell a bit short of what I actually envisioned.

The Ad Platform War Breaks Out #

My prediction was that ad platforms would become social. With Facebook expanding its ad share on the web and social ads utilizing Google's FriendConnect starting to appear, it's still too small to call a "war," but it's fair to say that progress is steadily being made.

Predicting 2010 #

So, while my 2009 predictions weren't completely off the mark, the results were a mixed bag and arguably jumped the gun a bit. Undeterred, let's take a look at 2010. By the way, I was also somewhat inspired by this article written by Yoichiro-san and this article by startup founders.

Twitter #

I think Twitter will continue to be at the center of attention in 2010. Not only Prime Minister Hatoyama, but also numerous celebrities have started using it—and of their own volition—so it will surely remain a hot topic. However, rather than Twitter crossing the chasm entirely on its own, I expect that competition from the mushrooming crop of rivals like Ameba Now will help popularize the microblogging category as a whole.

The Real-Time Web #

In 2010, the emphasis on real-time web experiences will continue to grow in Japan. Of course, being able to browse 2channel on mobile phones has been "real-time" for a while, but the defining characteristic of the 2010 real-time web is that it's social. The comfort of a social-mediated real-time web has been amply demonstrated by Twitter, so services like GREE Hitokoto and mixi Voice are likely to follow suit. A key point seems to be that having one timeline per person is more than enough.

Activity Streams

Last year, key players from Microsoft, Google, Facebook, MySpace, and elsewhere came together to create an open specification called ActivityStream. It has already been put into practical use by Facebook, MySpace, and others, and is slated to be incorporated into the new OpenSocial specifications. As an extension of Atom, this ActivityStream spec describes data more semantically, making it a format that better leverages social characteristics.

These activity streams are also a foundational component of the real-time web. Since microblogging timelines and activity streams complement each other so well, the trend toward integrating them—as seen in GREE Hitokoto and Facebook—will likely accelerate. Naturally, as real-time capabilities become more critical, the importance of real-time protocols like PubSubHubbub will rise as well.

Federated Identity

With the advent of OpenID and OAuth, users' real-world identities will be increasingly reflected on the web. OpenID has started to become commonplace, but going forward, as APIs for social graphs, activity streams, and billing get woven in, the connection between an individual and their identity will grow even stronger. As services like Facebook Connect and FriendConnect emerge in Japan, this trend will likely gain momentum.

OpenStack #

Alongside conventional standards like OpenID, OAuth, OpenSocial, XRDS-Simple, and PortableContacts, newer specs such as ActivityStreams, Salmon Protocol, PubSubHubbub, and WebFinger will likely come to be counted under the OpenStack umbrella. This is perhaps less of a prediction and more of a planned progression.

Social Media Marketing #

While the concept of Social Media Marketing (SMM) has existed for a while, SMM in 2010 will likely become far more real-time and direct. Previously, most SMM sought indirect results by using UGC media like YouTube or blogs to generate buzz across SNSs and blogs. Since around last year, however, we've seen an increase in cases where companies jump directly onto Twitter and Facebook to interact with other users. Although there are similar examples using official profiles on domestic Japanese services, the mainstream approach has been one-way communication, such as deliberately ignoring comments. SMM in 2010 will shift its stage from blogs to SNSs and microblogs, demanding a much more social approach with direct interaction with users. How well a company can adapt to this trend will likely be a true test of its agility.

Summary #

All in all, last year could be described as the inaugural year of the social web in Japan, and in 2010, I want to keep contributing to building momentum for the social web. I look forward to working with you all again this year.

Note: We hold study sessions on topics like this over at SocialWeb Japan. Please feel free to join us!