Happy new year

I've been busy raising my children and haven't been able to update my blog for a while, but I thought I'd write something as the new year began. 2009 was a significant year for me and for the social web. The appearance of the OpenSocial container implementation in Japan was a particularly significant event. It's no exaggeration to say that 2009 marked the beginning of a wave of social web growth that will likely continue into next year and beyond. I'm honored to have been even a small part of it.

In fact, I wrote an article like this on this blog at the beginning of 2009: "Predicting the Social Web in 2009"

I've introduced a blog post by John McCrea and made my own predictions about the social web in 2009.

Reviewing 2009 predictions #

John McCrea also reviewed his predictions, so I'll give it a try.

Google becomes a social networking site #

The article predicted that iGoogle would become a social platform (compatible with OpenSocial) that would include the FriendConnect social graph. In reality, only OpenSocial support was realized, and FriendConnect support was not implemented.

However, with Google services like Wave, Docs, Calendar, and Android using Gmail contact lists as a social graph, it's safe to say that the social web is slowly but surely evolving, rather than becoming a social networking site. Google Profiles have also evolved slightly, so it will be interesting to see how they evolve in the future.

Using the iPhone App Store as an example, he predicted a situation where it would be easier for all content creators, not just developers, to make money. He could also point out mixi apps and the Android Market, but it's hard to deny that his predictions are a little off from what he was trying to say.

The advertising platform wars begin #

The prediction was that advertising platforms would become social. With Facebook's growing share of web advertising and the emergence of social advertising using Google's FriendConnect, it's still too small to call it a war, but it's certainly progressing steadily.

Predicting 2010 #

So, while my predictions for 2009 weren't far off the mark, I can't help but feel that I got a little ahead of myself, which is a bit of a mixed bag. I'll keep thinking about 2010, too. Incidentally, I was also somewhat inspired by this article written by Yoichiro and this article by CEOs of venture companies .

Twitter #

I think Twitter will continue to be a hot topic in 2010. It's sure to be a hot topic, with not only Prime Minister Hatoyama but also celebrities joining one after another, and of their own volition. However, rather than Twitter alone crossing the chasm, I think the microblogging service as a whole will spread as a result of the competition for market share from other services like Ameba Now.

Real-time Web #

In 2010, there will be an ever-increasing emphasis on the real-time nature of the web, even in Japan. Of course, it was possible to call it real-time up until now, when you could access 2channel on your cell phone, but the greatest feature of the real-time web in 2010 will be that it is social. Twitter has already proven the ease of a real-time web via social media, so GREE's Hitokoto and mixi Voice will likely follow suit. The key point seems to be that one timeline per person is enough.

Activity Stream

Last year, an open specification called ActivityStream was created, primarily by people involved with Microsoft, Google, Facebook, and MySpace. It has already been put into practical use by Facebook, MySpace, and other platforms, and is scheduled to be incorporated into the new OpenSocial specification. The ActivityStream specification is an extension of Atom, and because it is more semantically described than previous versions, it is a format that makes better use of social features.

This activity stream is one element that makes up the real-time web. Microblog timelines and activity streams are a good match, so the trend toward integration, as seen with GREE's Hitokoto and Facebook, is likely to continue accelerating. Of course, real-time performance will also become more important, so the importance of real-time protocols such as PubsubHubbub is likely to increase.

Federated Identities

With the advent of OpenID and OAuth, users' personalities will be more clearly projected onto the web. OpenID has become a commonplace technology, but in the future, the connection between individuals and their identities will become even stronger as APIs for social graphs, activity, billing, and more will be incorporated. With the emergence of services like Facebook Connect and FriendConnect in Japan, this trend is expected to intensify.

OpenStack #

In addition to the traditional OpenID, OAuth, OpenSocial, XRDS-Simple, and PortableContacts, newer specifications such as ActivityStreams, Salmon Protocol, PubsubHubbub, and Webfinger are likely to be counted as OpenStack. This is more of a plan than a prediction.

Social Media Marketing #

While the concept of social media marketing (SMM) has existed for some time, SMM in 2010 is likely to become more real-time and direct. Traditional SMM often aimed for indirect effects by creating buzz on social media and blogs through user-generated content (UGC) media like YouTube and blogs. However, since last year, we've seen an increase in cases where companies have directly entered Twitter and Facebook and interacted with other users. While there are similar examples using official profiles on domestic services, the mainstream approach has been one-way, with companies strictly refusing to respond to comments. SMM in 2010 is likely to be more social, requiring direct interaction with users, with social media and microblogs taking center stage rather than blogs. Companies' flexibility will likely be tested by whether they can keep up with this trend.

summary #

So, last year could be said to be the first year of the social web in Japan, and we would like to continue to promote the social web in 2010. We look forward to your continued support this year.

*SocialWeb Japan holds study sessions on topics like this article. Please feel free to join us.